Trading Currencies: Cases Starting to Overwhelm the Vaccine

The increase of COVID-19 cases especially in the US and Europe begins to outweigh vaccine optimism. Take a look at how risk FX would perform in the coming weeks in our latest market analysis.

If we were arguing equities – market theory dictates that equities price 12 months ahead of time and come November 2021, the majority of the world will likely have been vaccinated.

But we are discussing FX and what is happening in the bond market in our view is the more telling stat for right now. US 10 treasury yields have been as high as 0.94% as presenting cases in the US are on track sometime early next week to be 200,000 a day. New York and Chicago ordering activity restrictions. Wisconsin and Michigan the same and even though Florida is resisting lockdowns, they are coming.

Infections are skyrocketing across the U.S. and Europe

US fatalities have reached their highest point since May. Based on the data from Johns Hopkins University, the death toll in the US is now at 250,029, which is higher than any other countries. Also, hospitalisations have jumped 13% in five days across six states.

Then we look at Europe, Italy’s fatality rate is at its April peak, France is now ‘at capacity’ for hospitalisations and is the first European nation with over 2 million known cases. The UK and Spain have now reported 1.5 million cases and that figure will no doubt get bigger still.

This has to be a short-term drag, and the early data released for October, a month that saw cases starting to increase, suggests it is. US retail sales figures fell in the month of October (missed the market expectation of 0.5% and arrived at 0.3%), Europe data is showing signs of slowing.

How is risk FX reacting to it?

As the charts show, the risk-on trade is being applied to the AUD/USD pair, news of the vaccine and that Australia is managing the COVID crisis better than most is seeing it holding the November gains. EUR/USD, however, lost momentum even with the positive news from the vaccines, there is an interesting setup building here.

A pattern that we will be watching closely over the coming weeks as the northern hemisphere moves into peak winter.

Source: https://www.fxempire.com/forec...