Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 14, 2022

Relevance up to 04:00 2022-04-15 

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Yesterday we overestimated the possibilities of the dollar, the breakdown of support at 1.0820 did not happen. It may seem that investors took no action ahead of today's European Central Bank meeting and decided to keep the euro in the range of 1.0820-1.0945, but in fact there was a reaction to the general weakening of the dollar, which received a boost from sharply falling US government bond yields on Tuesday and Wednesday. Yields on 2-year securities have been declining since Monday, during this time it fell from 2.54% to 2.27%, and yesterday the dollar slightly correlated. By this action, the market makes it clear that the euro exchange rate in the current situation is more dependent on the policy of the Federal Reserve than on the policy of the ECB. And if the market's expectations regarding the June ECB rate hike justifies, the euro definitely has no reason to rise. In the best case, the price will linger a little more in the range of 1.0820-1.0945. This is our main scenario. 

If there are problems with the main scenario, the price settles above 1.0945, then the euro is likely to rise to 1.1085 - to the Fibonacci channel line (daily), in the area of the MACD indicator line (blue). At the same time, price convergence with the Marlin Oscillator will finally form. We see no reason for such activity of speculators 2.5 weeks before the Fed rate hike by 0.50 points. Convergence is also forming on the four-hour chart; it can be taken as already formed, since the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is in the positive area. The convergence potential is enough to bring the price to the resistance area of the price level 1.0945 and the MACD line.