What to Expect in US Inflation Data for July 2023

Consensus data,

Headline inflation 3.3, Core CPI 4.8

Scenario 1

If the data prints higher than expected that is core CPI at 5.0 and Headline inflation at 3.5 market participants might interpret inflation as being sticky this will influence them to price for another rate hike either in September or November pushing the fed funds rates to the range of 5.5 – 5.75 percent and expected the fed to keep rates higher for longer. That is dollar bullish especially against the Yen and Swiss Franc.

In this scenario Buy USDJPY and USDCHF but wait until price confirms strong bullish momentum. 

Scenario 2

If the data prints as expected that is core CPI at 4.8 and Headline inflation at 3.3 market participants might interpret inflation as being sticky since the core CPI at 4.8 is still far away from the fed target of 2 percent this will influence them to expect the fed to keep rates higher for longer the range of 5.25 – 5.5. That might be dollar bullish especially against the Yen and Swiss Franc.

In this scenario Buy USDJPY and USDCHF but wait until price confirms strong bullish momentum. 

Scenario 3

If the data prints lower than expected, that is core CPI at 4.5 and Headline inflation at 3.0 market participants might interpret inflation as falling steadily then price out any further rate hike this year and bring rate cuts for 2024 forward. That is dollar bearish especially against the Yen and Swiss Franc.

In this scenario sell USDJPY and USDCHF but wait until price confirms strong bearish momentum. 

Always Let price confirm your views, take your time allow price to settle after the announcement and wait for it to guide you.