- Mexico’s Industrial Production in May came at -0.5% MoM, below estimates of 0.3% and March’s 0.5%. Annually, it grew 5.1%, above the consensus of 4.4% and improved compared to March’s -3.0%.
- In February 2024, AMLO put forward several proposals to the Mexican Congress. These include a Supreme Court reform that suggests electing Supreme Court ministers through popular vote; an electoral reform aimed at electing electoral commission councilors by popular vote and reducing multi-member representation; and a reform of autonomous bodies that proposes dissolving the transparency body.
- Mexican Peso depreciation could weigh on the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) decision to ease policy, even though last month’s core inflation slowed. Therefore, keeping interest rates higher could prompt deceleration in the economy and increase the odds of a recession.
- Morgan Stanley noted that if Mexico’s upcoming government and Congress adopted an unorthodox agenda, it would undermine Mexican institutions and be bearish for the Mexican Peso, which could weaken to 19.20.
- Last week’s US economic data decreased the odds for a Fed rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, from above 50% to 46.7%.
- December’s 2024 fed funds futures contract hints that investors expect 28 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed through the end of the year.
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