Current trend

Benchmark Brent Crude Oil prices are correcting in a poor downward trend at 86.00, slowing their growth after a positive end of last week.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventories have adjusted from 0.914M barrels to –9.163M barrels, and according to statistics from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) – from 3.591M barrels to –12.157M barrels, which supported the quotes last week. Monday’s negative dynamics are developing against the victory in the presidential elections of the Iranian reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, who spoke in favor of expanding the geography of oil supplies. The country exports oil to 17 regions, and in recent years, the production volume has grown from 2.2M barrels per day to 3.57M barrels per day, the fourth place in OPEC.

As for investment demand on commodity exchanges, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), the volume of trading in oil futures at the end of last week amounted to 760.0K positions, an average figure for June, inferior to the peak values ​​in the middle of last month of 950.0–960.0K contracts. Locally, there is an increase from the low of June 28 of 573.0K contracts, which will likely support the asset for some time.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving in a corrective trend, increasing within the local Expanding formation with the boundaries of 84.50–75.60.

Technical indicators are maintaining a buy signal: fast EMA of the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming ascending bars in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 86.60, 90.00.

Support levels: 85.50, 82.80.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 86.60, with the target at 90.00. Stop loss – 85.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 85.50, with the target at 82.80. Stop loss – 86.50.