- Gold price surged past the $2,400 mark on Thursday following the release of the softer-than-expected US consumer inflation figures, which lifted bets for a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped in June for the first time in more than four years and the yearly rate decelerated to 3% from 3.3% in May.
- Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 0.1% during the reported month and rose 3.3% YoY, also missing consensus estimates and the 3.4% increase registered in May.
- Investors were quick to react and are now pricing in over a 90% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs at the September monetary policy meeting, as indicated by the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
- Furthermore, the December 2024 fed funds rate futures contract implies that the US central bank will cut policy rates by 49 basis points (bps) toward the end of the year, up from 39 bps a day ago.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly acknowledged improving inflation figures and said that the economy looks to be on a path where one or two rate cuts this year would be more or less appropriate.
- Separately, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem noted that recession risks remain low, and the disinflation process is ongoing, though policymakers would like to see more progress.
- Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond tumbled to its lowest level since March, dragging the US Dollar to a three-month trough and providing a strong boost to the yellow metal.
- This overshadowed the better-than-expected release of the US Initial Jobless Claims, which fell to 222K for the week ending July 6 as compared to expectations for a reading of 236K and the 239K previous.
- The XAU/USD, however, struggles to capitalize on the overnight strong move up amid a modest USD uptick during the Asian session on Friday, though the fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders
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