United States of America

USD is strengthening against EUR but has ambiguous dynamics against GBP and JPY.

Today, weekly data on the labor market was published, which turned out to be mixed: the number of initial jobless claims increased by 233.0 thousand, below both the forecast of 241.0 thousand and the previous figure of 250.0 thousand, while the total number of people receiving assistance from the state was adjusted from 1.869 million to 1.875 million, exceeding preliminary estimates of 1.870 million, confirming the cooling trend of the sector, and causing investors to fear the onset of a recession. In this regard, analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. changed their estimate of the probability of a significant economic downturn by the end of the year from 25.0% to 35.0% and noted that due to worsening statistics, the US Federal Reserve may abandon its cautious monetary policy and cut interest rates by at least 100 basis points this year.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against USD and GBP but has ambiguous dynamics against JPY.

Investors are preparing for the publication of July inflation data in the German economy on Friday: the consumer price index may increase from 0.1% to 0.3% MoM and from 2.2% to 2.3% YoY, while the harmonized indicator is likely to increase from 0.2% to 0.5% and from 2.5% to 2.6%, respectively. Thus, inflationary pressure in the country will grow again, which will increase the likelihood of consumer price growth in the entire Eurozone economy. In this case, European Central Bank (ECB) officials may refuse to further reduce interest rates in the medium term.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against EUR but has ambiguous dynamics against USD and JPY.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the pound's movement is due to external factors. It is worth noting the publication of the UK Finance, the trade association for the banking and financial services sector: experts note that due to high interest rates in the second quarter, the number of creditors' claims for the repossession of mortgaged properties reached the highest level in the last five years, while 96.0 thousand homeowners had arrears of at least 2.5%. The number of claims for non-payment of mortgages increased by 34.0% YoY (from 3.991 thousand to 5.343 thousand), and cases of repossession of mortgaged properties from owners grew by 31.0% compared to the same period last year. These data confirm the continuing pressure on the housing market, which can only begin to recover significantly if the Bank of England continues to ease monetary policy.

Japan

JPY has ambiguous dynamics against its main competitors – EUR, GBP, and USD.

A summary of the views of Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials from their last meeting in July was released today. According to the document, they discussed a long cycle of interest rate hikes, with one board member saying that borrowing costs should eventually be raised to around 1.0% or higher. This is the first time that an end point for the hike has been stated. In addition, officials discussed the risks of a stronger-than-expected acceleration in the country's inflation rate amid rising import costs and rising wages. According to experts, the document confirms a growing view among BoJ board members that further interest rate hikes may be appropriate in the near term.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against its main competitors – EUR, JPY, GBP, and USD.

Investors are focused on the comments of the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Michele Bullock, who today confirmed that the regulator will raise the key rate again if this is necessary to contain persistent inflation, which will have an even more negative impact on the economy in the future if radical steps are not taken in time. Thus, she emphasized that, given the high level of consumer prices and the continuing growth of the labor market, there are no grounds for easing monetary policy soon.

Oil

Oil prices are showing ambiguous dynamics today and are trading in narrow sideways ranges.

Pressure on quotes is exerted by fears of a downturn in the global economy, primarily due to the slowdown in the American and Chinese economies, which may lead to a decrease in demand for oil products. Recall that in July, business activity in the Chinese manufacturing sector again fell from 51.8 points to 49.8 points, while gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter slowed its growth from 5.3% to 4.7%. In addition, July data on the US labor market recorded an increase in unemployment to 4.3% and a slowdown in employment growth to 114.0 thousand. However, the more rapid negative dynamics of quotes is hindered by statistics from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report: the indicator has decreased for the sixth week in a row, amounting to 3.728 million barrels.