| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL LIMIT |
| Entry Point | 1.3780 |
| Take Profit | 1.3625 |
| Stop Loss | 1.3830 |
| Key Levels | 1.3887, 1.3780, 1.3625, 1.3595, 1.3500 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.3835 |
| Take Profit | 1.3960 |
| Stop Loss | 1.3780 |
| Key Levels | 1.3887, 1.3780, 1.3625, 1.3595, 1.3500 |
Current trend
The USD/CAD pair is under "bearish" pressure, holding in the area of 1.3705 and preparing to continue its downward movement.
The day before, July data on inflation in the US was presented, which creates the preconditions for a further decline in the dollar exchange rate: thus, the Consumer Price Index in annual terms amounted to 2.9%, which turned out to be lower than expectations of 3.0%, and the Core CPI amounted to 3.2%, which confirmed the analysts' forecast. These data, along with a moderate rise in producer prices in July, indicate that inflationary pressures are easing, with the US Federal Reserve likely to ease monetary parameters in September, putting pressure on the dollar.
The long-term trend remains upward: after reaching its high in early August, quotes went into correction, within which the support level of 1.3780 was broken, after which quotes will probably head to the region of 1.3625–1.3595, if reached, it is worth considering long positions with a target of 1.3780. A breakout of 1.3780 will allow the instrument to strengthen to the resistance level of 1.3887. For the trend to change, the price must fall below the May and July lows, that is, below 1.3595, and in this case the USD/CAD pair will consolidate in the area of 1.3500.
The medium-term trend changed to a downward trend this week: the target zone (1.3755–1.3736) was broken through and now the sales target is 1.3568–1.3550. If a correction develops, the price is likely to reach key resistance in the area of 1.3898–1.3879, after which it is worth considering short positions with a target at the weekly low of 1.3690. Another resistance is the 1.3792–1.3783 area, and given the strength of the trend, the correction may stop at this zone, providing an entry point for short positions with a target of 1.3690.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.3780, 1.3887.
Support levels: 1.3625, 1.3595, 1.3500.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from 1.3780 with the target at 1.3625 and stop-loss at 1.3830. Implementation time: 9-12 days.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 1.3830 with target at 1.3960 and stop-loss at 1.3780.
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