• Dow Jones continues to churn just below 41,000.00.
• Equities continue to look for further signs of rate cuts from Fed.
• NFP payroll adjustments have bolstered bets of 100 bps in 2024.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is churning in the midrange on Wednesday as markets buckle down for the wait to the kickoff of this year’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Summit on Thursday. Markets continue to look for firmer signs of the Federal Reserve (Fed) getting pushed into a rate cutting cycle in September, with bets on the rise of a 100 bps rate trim on September 18.

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets kicked up their bets of a double rate cut from the Fed in September after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a steep downside revision to Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) figures initially released in March. The BLS knocked over 800K jobs off of the March jobs report retroactively, sending rate trader bets of a 100 bps initial cut on September 18 up to roughly a third, with the remainder of the rate markets still expecting at least a 25 bps trim.