Current trend

The price of WTI Crude Oil has been falling for the second week, trying to break through the support level of 72.93, after which it may renew the low of August 5 at 72.05.

The instrument responded to the report of the US Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics published on Wednesday. Thus, from March 2023 to March 2024, the economy created 818.0K fewer jobs than expected, bringing the total number of jobs for this year to 2.1M, below the previously recorded 2.9M. In turn, the average monthly indicator was revised to 174.0K from 242.0K. Negative dynamics against the potential completion of OPEC plans to reduce production raise concerns among investors about the demand for energy since the United States is the world’s largest consumer of black gold.

Meanwhile, the oil market continues to correct, and according to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week, the number of net speculative positions in WTI Crude Oil increased to 231.5K from 222.3K. As for the dynamics, the gap in favor of buyers is narrowing, and the weekly increase was caused by the liquidation of some long positions. Thus, the balance of “bulls” among producers amounted to 399.019K against 359.727K among “bears”. Last week, buyers closed 4.949K transactions, while sellers increased them by 10.220K, which signals a possible local correction in the asset.

The long-term trend is downward. Today, market participants are trying to break through the support level of 72.93, and if they succeed, the low of August 5, 72.05, will be renewed. The next sales target will be 68.27, and then the low of last year, 64.00. To change the trend upwards, the price has to consolidate above 84.53, breaking the resistance levels of 76.69 and 80.00. The RSI (21) indicator is directed downwards and is approaching the oversold zone, and upon reaching, long positions from the correction are relevant. Until that moment, sales will remain a priority.

The medium-term trend is also downward. At the beginning of August, trading participants broke through the target zone 2 (74.30−73.78), after which a deep upward correction followed. Within it, traders tried to consolidate above the key trend resistance of 78.58−77.98, held by sellers. Against this background, the instrument continues to decline, with the target at the August low of 72.05, and if it manages to consolidate below, the movement will continue to zone 3 (69.11−68.59).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 76.69, 80.01, 84.53.

Support levels: 72.93, 68.27, 61.01.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 76.69, with the target at 72.93 and stop loss 78.00. The implementation period is 9–12 days.

Long positions may be opened above 78.00, with the target at 81.80 and stop loss 76.50.