• The Dow Jones clipped a new record high bid to round out the trading week.
• US PCE inflation held steady in July, teasing investors without giving further hope.
• Coming up next week: US long weekend, PMI figures, and another NFP print.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tipped into a fresh record intraday high on Friday, echoing Monday’s record-setting bidding action. However, investors pulled back from the brink after US inflation data kept rate cut bets on the rails.

US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) figures for July didn’t deliver any notable surprises to round out the trading week. MoM US core PCE inflation held steady at 0.2%, as expected, but the YoY core PCE inflation figure held steady at 2.5% versus the anticipated move up to 2.6%. 

Rate markets are holding firmly to 30% odds of an initial double cut for 50 bps from the Federal Reserve (Fed) on September 18, with the remaining 70% leaning into a single quarter-point cut. Overall, rate traders are pricing in 100 bps in total cuts in 2024, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.