From Bold Promises to Broken Dreams: The Fall of 'shenckan12'

𝙉𝙞𝙘𝙠𝙣𝙖𝙢𝙚: @shenckan12

Country: China

𝘽𝙧𝙤𝙠𝙚𝙧: VantageFX

𝘽𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙛 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩:

Ever since "@shenckan12 " suffered a loss of $3,684 on August 3rd, with a 48.70% drawdown, the "200% annual return" goal mentioned in the strategy description has essentially become an empty promise. So, what exactly happened a month ago that caused a signal once followed by 53 subscribers to be left with none?

Driven by curiosity, I delved into the trading data of this signal. First, I looked at the yearly performance curve—after climbing steadily at a 45-degree angle, it suddenly took a nosedive. Anyone familiar with Martingale or grid trading strategies will recognize this dramatic drop, caused by the liquidation of positions that were heavily in the red.

Time in exchange for profit is at the core of Martingale and grid strategies, but the execution of indicators, timing of adding to positions, and profit-taking targets vary greatly (the only constant is that if you can't withstand the drawdown, your account will get wiped out).

Upon closely reviewing the recent trades, I noticed that the CAD/CHF pair had been trending downwards since July, but long positions kept accumulating. It was as if the trader was confident that the market's hesitant behavior was akin to a shy bride before her wedding day—eventually, she would open up. Unlike other grid or Martingale traders who rush to close positions, @shenckan12 was determined to hold on and squeeze out every last bit of profit. Cut the loss? No, he kept doubling down on losing positions, believing that when the market finally rebounded, the gains would be even bigger.

However, not every marriage ends in happiness. When CAD/CHF plummeted by over 10% in early August, @shenckan12 couldn’t hold on any longer. He cut his losses, closing out his positions in despair, and the promises made before the "wedding" (the strategy’s bold claims) became nothing more than empty words.

Today, the account is still in positive territory and has survived over 30 weeks, but there are no subscribers left.