| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 2530.0 |
| Take Profit | 2620.0 |
| Stop Loss | 2480.0 |
| Key Levels | 2380.0, 2470.0, 2530.0, 2620.0 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 2470.0 |
| Take Profit | 2380.0 |
| Stop Loss | 2510.0 |
| Key Levels | 2380.0, 2470.0, 2530.0, 2620.0 |
Current trend
The XAU/USD pair returned to 2500.0, supported by fundamental factors. One of the main reasons for keeping the quotes near annual highs is the high demand for both exchange contracts and physical gold.
After the summer break, global central banks are actively replenishing their reserves. According to the World Gold Council (WGC) report, they purchased 37.0 tons in July, which is 206.0% more than in June and is a monthly high since January. The leader was the National Bank of Poland, which increased its reserves by 14.0 tons to 392.0 tons. According to the plan, the agency plans to increase the figure to 20.0% of reserves from the current 15.0%, which may signal the continuation of deliveries in the future.
Investors’ interest in the asset is confirmed by statistics from leading trading platforms. According to the report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of buy positions in the category of contracts backed by real money is 242.861K, one of the highest figures since the beginning of the year, while seller positions in this category amount to only 16.271K transactions. Meanwhile, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), the average daily trading volume is recorded around 145.6K, which exceeds the August average of 134.0K, and on September 3, the July high daily volume of 288.9K contracts was renewed.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting just below the resistance line of the long-term ascending channel 2550.0–2370.0. Technical indicators reinforce the buy signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator retreat from the signal line, and the AO histogram forms correction bars above the transition level.
Resistance levels: 2530.0, 2620.0.
Support levels: 2470.0, 2380.0.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 2530.0, with the target at 2620.0. Stop loss — 2480.0. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 2470.0, with the target at 2380.0. Stop loss — 2510.0.
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