For the second time this summer, the Norwegian krone is experiencing a major selloff without a clear catalyst. The thinner liquidity conditions of the NOK market compared to other G10 currencies make it quite vulnerable to speculative selling, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

Norges Bank has no rush to turn dovish just yet

“This morning, Norway released CPI figures for August. Headline inflation came in at 2.6% YoY versus 2.8% consensus and the underlying rate was on consensus at 3.2% YoY. We believe that the currency situation is more relevant than inflation data for Norges Bank at this stage. Governor Ida Wolden Bache has been repeatedly vocal about the risks of a weak NOK and we believe Norges Bank has no rush to turn dovish just yet.”

“We expect another hawkish statement at next week’s meeting, to discourage further NOK selling. EUR/NOK is expensive by any measure at these levels. We expect a decline to start at any point now, but we cannot exclude that EUR/NOK may be pushed beyond 12.00 before opportunistic selling takes over.”