Current trend

The AUD/USD pair is testing the 0.6665 mark for a breakout, trying to retreat from the lows of August 16, tested yesterday: the corrective decline of the Australian dollar stopped after the publication of macroeconomic data and comments by the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Michelle Bullock in support of tight monetary policy.

In July, the number of building permits MoM increased by 10.4%, justifying analysts’ forecasts and exceeding the previous value of –6.4%, which reflects the recovery in the new homes sector and the economy as a whole. Also today, the National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index was published, which in August amounted to –4.0 points, which was worse than the previous value of 1.0 points but investors apparently ignored this economic indicator.

The second factor contributing to the strengthening of the Australian dollar was the rhetoric of Michelle Bullock last week. She noted that it is too early to consider reducing the cost of borrowing with high inflation, which is 3.8% with the bank’s target of 2.0%, adding that the “hawkish” monetary policy will be maintained until new macroeconomic data appears.

The trading instrument is correcting to the long-term upward trend and has reached the support level of 0.6650. It is currently held, which allows opening long positions, with the target at the resistance level of 0.6750, after breaking through which growth may last month’s high of 0.6820. In case of consolidation below the support level of 0.6650, the movement will continue to the area of ​​0.6566–0.6540.

The medium-term trend remains upward: at the end of last week, the asset tested the key support area of ​​0.6679–0.6664, breaking through it in the end. Today the price is trying to return to this level, and if it consolidates above 0.6679, a buy signal will appear with the first target at 0.6744 and the second at the August high of 0.6824, and then in zone 4 (0.6943–0.6928). After consolidation below the support area of ​​0.6679–0.6664, the trend will reverse downwards, with the target in zone 2 (0.6534–0.6519).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.6750, 0.6820, 0.6860.

Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6566, 0.6540.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 0.6650, with the target at 0.6750 and stop loss 0.6620. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.6620, with the target at 0.6540 and stop loss 0.6660.