OWM 8.23 Gold and Crude Oil Operation Strategy

Gold Market Analysis: On Thursday (August 22), gold prices declined during U.S. trading hours, hovering around $2480 per ounce. The latest data showing that the U.S. housing market ended a four-month decline and met expectations for July contributed to this drop. Shortly after the housing data release, spot gold fell to a new intraday low of $2470.34, representing a 1.51% decrease on the day. Economists are closely monitoring the U.S. housing market due to its significant role in economic activity. The real estate sector has struggled under the Fed’s most aggressive rate hikes in 40 years, but expectations are that the Fed will enter a rate-cutting cycle starting in September. In addition to initial jobless claims data, the market is also focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. This will be a key event this weekend, with investors looking for more clues about the Fed’s monetary policy direction. Overall, although a slight increase in jobless claims reflects a gradual cooling in the labor market, it has not shaken the market’s confidence in the Fed’s expected rate cuts. The gold market is currently in a period of adjustment, and investors need to watch closely for statements from Fed officials and future data to gauge the next movements in gold prices. In the coming weeks, the market will continue to digest this information, potentially leading to increased short-term volatility in gold prices. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, gold still has room for growth given potential further easing by the Fed. The expectation of Fed rate cuts remains a significant factor for the gold market. As interest rates decline, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets decreases, which usually supports gold prices. Nonetheless, the market seems to have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, reflected in the moderate correction in gold prices.

Gold Strategy for Today: It is recommended to focus primarily on buying the dips and secondarily on selling the rallies. Watch for resistance at 2505 and support at 2475.

Crude Oil Market Analysis: On Thursday (August 22), despite optimistic U.S. economic data boosting sentiments about American demand, concerns about weakened demand forecasts from major Asian countries persist, leading to global demand concerns. The worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict has provided some support to oil prices, but the initiation of ceasefire talks in the Middle East has eased supply disruption fears, which could drag down oil prices. Technically, the daily moving averages are intertwined, suggesting short-term fluctuations. Looking ahead, Brent crude oil prices may continue to face pressure, with market attention possibly shifting to the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, where interest rate decisions could significantly impact oil prices. Although U.S. economic data has provided some support, the overall outlook remains pessimistic due to economic slowdowns in various regions and increased supply from Libya, continuing to exert downward pressure on the market.

Crude Oil Strategy for Today: It is advised to focus mainly on selling the rallies and secondarily on buying the dips. Watch for resistance at 74.3 and support at 71.3.

Note: Please exercise caution in your operations; these suggestions are for reference only.