- US Consumer Confidence unexpectedly plunged in September, falling below expectations to 98.7.
- Market anticipates excessive Fed easing, pricing in 75 bps of cuts by year-end and 175-200 bps over the next year.
- Some Fed officials, including Neel Kashkari from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and Michelle Bowman, are pushing back against dovish market expectations.
- Bowman dissented from the recent 50 bps rate cut, preferring a 25 bps reduction and warning that a larger cut might hinder the inflation fight.
- She highlighted ongoing inflation risks, including supply chain disruptions and fiscal policy, and remains cautious about the strength of the labor market.
- Other Fed officials, like Raphael Bostic from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Austan Goolsbee from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, express concerns about the labor market and support faster rate cuts.
- Markets continue to bet strongly on 75 bps of easing this year.
- On the positive side for the USD, divergence in global growth favors the US Dollar, with the eurozone, Australia and China showing signs of weakness.
- US 10-year benchmark rate retreated from September highs, currently trading at 3.75%.
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