- EUR/USD faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rises ahead of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The inflation data will significantly influence market expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate outlook for the last quarter of the year. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges higher to near 100.65 but has remained inside the 100.20-101.40 range for the past two weeks.
- The PCE report is expected to show that core inflation rose at a faster pace of 2.7% year-on-year from 2.6% in June, with monthly figures growing steadily by 0.2%.
- Currently, financial markets seem to be confident that the Fed will cut interest rates for the second straight time in November as inflation is on track to return to the bank’s target of 2% and policymakers are concerned over growing risks to labor demand. However, traders remain equally split over the potential rate cut size between 25 and 50 bps, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
- Next week, investors will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Monday, a slew of labor market data, and the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to project the next move in the US Dollar.
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