European gas demand is down 10% y-o-y due to weak demand from the power and heating sector, while industrial gas demand remains flat, Rabobank’s commodity analysts note.

Geopolitical tensions continue to drive price volatility

“A colder-than-usual winter will increase heating demand and competition for LNG, but Europe is unlikely to come out as the premium global gas market. Higher winter heating demand also poses a new risk for 2025, as it will force Europe’s LNG imports to rise again!”

“Geopolitical tensions, particularly around Russian gas deliveries and Middle Eastern conflicts, continue to drive price volatility. Speculative positioning has also influenced recent price movements, with the potential for further sell-offs depending on geopolitical developments. We still expect TTF gas prices to average €38/MWh in Q4 and €36-37/MWh in winter 2025/2026.”

“The European carbon market is closely following price variations of the TTF gas market, while geopolitical risks remain the key drivers for volatility. Elevated gas prices are driving demand for more carbon-intensive coal-fired power plants and consequently EU Allowances (EUAs) this winter. We forecast EUA prices to range €68-71/t CO2e in Q4.”