| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 75.50 |
| Take Profit | 79.20 |
| Stop Loss | 74.00 |
| Key Levels | 69.40, 73.50, 75.50, 79.20 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 73.50 |
| Take Profit | 69.40 |
| Stop Loss | 75.00 |
| Key Levels | 69.40, 73.50, 75.50, 79.20 |
Current trend
Prices for benchmark Brent Crude Oil are correcting in an upward trend around 75.35 amid the announcement of a ground operation in Lebanon by the Israel Defense Forces. Yesterday, the dynamics were supported by reports of an Iranian missile attack on Israeli territory after the elimination of the leaders of the Lebanese paramilitary organization Hezbollah and the Palestinian movement Hamas, and analysts’ opinions on a possible retaliatory strike against Iranian oil infrastructure facilities may cause further price increases.
Amid geopolitical tensions in one of the world’s largest producing regions, data on oil reserves in the United States does not have as significant an impact on the quotes as before. Nevertheless, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API) data, the indicator changed from –4.399M barrels to –1.458M barrels. Today, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish the data. Forecasts suggest a correction from –4.471M barrels to –1.500M barrels, the twelfth consecutive reduction in reserves, the total volume of which will exceed 47.0M barrels.
The strengthening of the upward trend is confirmed by trading volumes on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group). Yesterday’s session saw a record daily figure since spring at 2.277M contracts, significantly higher than 1.567M transactions on September 30, while the option position increased to 557.071K, a record for the last six months.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within the correction channel 75.00–68.00, having reached its resistance line.
Technical indicators are weakening the sell signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO histogram has formed several ascending bars in the sell zone.
Resistance levels: 75.50, 79.20.
Support levels: 73.50, 69.40.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 75.50, with the target at 79.20. Stop loss is 74.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 73.50, with the target at 69.40. Stop loss is 75.00.
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