United States of America

USD is strengthening against its main competitors – EUR, JPY, and GBP.

Weekly labor market data released today turned out to be ambiguous: the number of initial jobless claims increased by 225.0 thousand, exceeding both the forecast of 222.0 thousand and the previous figure of 219.0 thousand, but the total number of citizens receiving assistance from the state decreased from 1.827 million to 1.826 million. Also worth noting were the comments of the President of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) Thomas Barkin, who said yesterday that the struggle to return the growth rate of consumer prices to the target level of 2.0% could take longer than expected. At the same time, the official welcomed the September cut in the key rate by the US Fed by 50 basis points and allowed for an overall reduction in the cost of borrowing by a similar amount by the end of the year, but noted that, in 2025, the combination of high demand and a strengthening labor market could complicate further easing of monetary policy.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening moderately in pair USD, but is strengthening against GBP and has ambiguous dynamics against JPY.

The data on the Services PMI published today recorded a decrease in the indicator from 52.9 points to 51.4 points with preliminary estimates of 50.5 points, and in the Composite PMI – from 51.0 points to 49.6 points with preliminary estimates of 48.9 points, ending up in the stagnation zone, while similar German statistics recorded a correction from 51.2 points to 50.6 points and from 48.4 points to 47.5 points, respectively. In turn, the producer price index (PPI) fell from 0.7% to 0.6% MoM and from −2.2% to −2.3% YoY, confirming the slowdown in inflationary pressure and increasing the likelihood of a new interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). In this regard, it is worth noting the comments of the regulator's board member Isabel Schnabel, who said yesterday that the reduction in demand for labor makes it quite likely that inflation will steadily reach the target level of 2.0% in the short term, despite the high cost of services and indexation of wages.

United Kingdom

GBP is weakening against its main competitors – EUR, JPY, and USD.

Today, September business activity data was published, which turned out to be weak: the Services PMI fell from 53.7 points to 52.4 points against expectations of 52.8 points, and the Composite PMI – from 53.8 points to 52.6 points instead of the expected 52.9 points, while experts note that price inflation in the services sector fell to the lowest level since February 2021. It is also worth noting the comments of the head of the Bank of England (BoE) Andrew Bailey, who today in an interview with The Guardian said that the regulator may take more aggressive action to reduce interest rates if inflationary pressures continue to weaken, but the expansion of the conflict in the Middle East could lead to an increase in oil prices, so there are still risks of a new increase in consumer prices.

Japan

JPY is weakening against USD but strengthening against GBP and has ambiguous dynamics in pair with EUR.

September business activity data was released today, turning out to be weak: the Services PMI fell from 53.7 points to 53.1 points, and the Composite PMI dropped from 52.9 points to 52.0 points, with preliminary estimates of 53.9 points and 52.5 points, respectively. Thus, business activity in Japan continues its uptrend, albeit more slowly than expected. It is traditionally supported by the service sector, while industry is under serious pressure. It is also worth noting the comments of Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi, who said today that the regulator has the ability to raise interest rates even more, but officials must act carefully and slowly so as not to put pressure on the economy.

Australia

AUD is strengthening in pair with GBP but weakening against EUR, JPY, and USD.

Investors are focused on the publication of August trade data, which turned out to be weak: the volume of exports fell by 0.2% after growing by 0.3% in July, the volume of imports also corrected by 0.2%, due to which the trade surplus increased to 5.644 billion Australian dollars. September business activity data were published today: the Services PMI fell from 52.5 points to 50.5 points, and the Composite PMI – from 51.7 to 49.6 points, ending up in the stagnation zone. Thus, business activity has slowed again, which may put additional pressure on the economy and push officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates, but most experts do not believe that the parameters of monetary policy will be changed until early next year.

Oil

Oil prices are rising today amid instability in the Middle East.

Experts fear that Israel may soon strike Iran's oil infrastructure, which will cause a reduction in production and new interruptions in the supply of oil products from the region, while a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily lead to their complete suspension. However, the growth of quotes is restrained by the data of the report on reserves from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA): according to the document published yesterday, the indicator for commercial oil increased by 3.889 million barrels instead of the expected decrease of 1.500 million barrels, gasoline reserves grew by 1.119 million barrels, while distillates declined by 1.284 million barrels.