| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.3590 |
| Take Profit | 1.3710 |
| Stop Loss | 1.3540 |
| Key Levels | 1.3420, 1.3520, 1.3590, 1.3710 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.3520 |
| Take Profit | 1.3420 |
| Stop Loss | 1.3600 |
| Key Levels | 1.3420, 1.3520, 1.3590, 1.3710 |
Current trend
The USD/CAD pair is correcting at 1.3555 during the Asian session amid Canadian macroeconomic statistics.
Thus, the manufacturing PMI increased from 49.5 points to 50.4 points, entering the growth zone for the first time since April 2023. This evening, investors will pay attention to the Ivey Institute of Statistics Canada’s manufacturing PMI. According to forecasts, the seasonally adjusted indicator will remain in the growth zone at 50.3 points in September. The composite PMI may increase from 48.2 points to 50.3 points, well below the average of 60.0 points in late spring.
The American dollar strengthened to 101.60 in USDX. Traders reacted positively to the rise in the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) September non-manufacturing PMI from 51.5 to 54.9, the highest since February 2023. Initial jobless claims fell from 219.0K to 225.0K, remaining below the summer and late spring average of 230.0K.
Yesterday, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said the fight to return consumer price growth to the 2.0% target could take longer than expected. At the same time, the official welcomed the Fed’s 50 basis point cut in September and allowed for a similar reduction in overall borrowing costs by the end of the year. However, he noted that in 2025, a combination of strong demand and a strengthening labor market could make it difficult to ease monetary policy further.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting within the downward channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.3600–1.3420.
Technical indicators are weakening the sell signal: the EMA fluctuation range on the Alligator indicator is narrowing, fast EMAs are approaching each other, and the AO histogram is forming correction bars, approaching the transition level from below.
Resistance levels: 1.3590, 1.3710.
Support levels: 1.3520, 1.3420.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 1.3590, with the target at 1.3710. Stop loss — 1.3540. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 1.3520, with the target at 1.3420. Stop loss – 1.3600.
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