Current trend

After active growth in September and reaching 0.6930, the AUD/USD pair is correcting to 0.6790.

The asset’s dynamics are due to positive statistics from the American labor market. The September nonfarm payrolls amounted to 254.0K, exceeding the forecast of 147.0K by 1.7 times, and the previous value was recalculated from 142.0K to 159.0K, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%. The stability of the sector is a key parameter for the US Fed in choosing the vector of monetary policy, allowing the interest rate to be changed by –25 basis points at the November meeting and not by –50 basis points, as previously predicted.

The Australian dollar is under pressure from negative data from the real estate market. The August building permits fell by 6.1% compared to the forecast of 4.3%, the volume of housing loans – from 2.5% to 0.7%, and the property investment indicator – from 5.1% to 1.4%. The sector is declining amid the high borrowing costs of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and peak inflation. Tomorrow, investors will pay attention to the meeting minutes on the regulator’s monetary policy, which may clarify its further actions.

The long-term trend remains upward. At the end of last week, a correction began, within which the price broke the support level of 0.6820 and headed to 0.6744. Holding it will allow it to continue growing to 0.6825 and 0.6930. In case of a breakdown of 0.6744, the asset may decline to the trend line of 0.6635.

The medium-term trend is upward. Last week, the quotes corrected to the key support area of ​​0.6797–0.6783, where long positions with the targets of 0.6863 and 0.6942 became relevant. After consolidation above, zone 3 (0.7104–0.7088) may be reached. After a breakdown of the support area of ​​0.6797–0.6783, the trend will reverse downwards, and it is worth opening short positions with the target in zone 2 (0.6637–0.6621).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.6825, 0.6930, 0.7015.

Support levels: 0.6744, 0.6635, 0.6565.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 0.6744, with the target at 0.6825 and stop loss 0.6715. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.6715, with the target at 0.6635 and stop loss 0.6750.