GBP/USD CHURNS AHEAD OF UK WAGES AND LABOR FIGURES

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  • GBP/USD continues to battle markets just above 1.3000.
  • Cable traders are buckling down ahead of Tuesday’s key UK labor figures.
  • UK CPI inflation, US Retail Sales figures due later in the week.

GBP/USD churned chart paper just north of 1.3000 on Monday, with markets striking a laid-back tone ahead of key UK data due to release in the first half of the trading week. UK wages and jobs additions are slated for early Tuesday, with UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation in the barrel for Wednesday. US Retail Sales figures will round out the middle of the week on Thursday, followed by UK Retail Sales slated for Friday’s London market session.

Markets are looking for a continued easing in UK labor figures for the quarter ended in August. Median market forecasts expect a headline print of Average Earnings Excluding Bonus to tick back to 4.9% for the annualized quarter ended in August, down from the previous 5.1%. The UK’s Claimant Count Change is expected to ease down to 20.2K in September from August’s 23.7K, while the UK’s ILO Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% for the three month period ended in August.

It’s a GBP-forward data docket in the first half of the trading week; UK CPI inflation figures will followup on Wednesday, with headline YoY CPI inflation expected to ease down to 1.9% from the previous 2.2%, though core CPI UK inflation is expected to continue riding much higher, but still soften to 3.4% from 3.6%.

Meaningful US data isn’t due until Thursday’s US Retail Sales, expected to accelerate to 0.3% MoM in September after August’s lackluster 0.1%. However, Cable traders will be largely focused on Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Report Hearings. UK Retail Sales figures will wrap up the trading week on Friday, where investors are expecting figures to backslide to -0.3% MoM in September from the previous 1.0%.


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