Current trend

Last week, the BTC/USD pair showed ambiguous dynamics: it initially fell to the 58900.00 area, but over the weekend it regained lost positions and is now around 64200.00. Experts suggest that the recovery of quotes is due to technical reasons, since the fundamental background remains negative for digital assets.

According to the latest data, the US labor market showed signs of strengthening in September: employment increased by 254.0 thousand, and unemployment fell to 4.1%, while the consumer price index (CPI) in annual terms amounted to 2.4% instead of the expected 2.3%. Thus, the preconditions are created for a more cautious approach by the US Federal Reserve to lowering interest rates, which puts pressure on assets alternative to the dollar. Currently, experts believe in two more reductions in the cost of borrowing by the end of the year, by 25 basis points each, although some officials of the regulator are already hinting at the possibility of only one correction in the key rate this year.

The uncertainty in the market is aggravated by the upcoming US presidential elections: most participants in the crypto community believe that digital assets will be in a better position if Donald Trump, who has previously promised to make BTC a reserve currency, is again in charge of the administration, however, since the outcome of the elections is still unknown, investors are limiting their activity. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that there is still a significant inflow of investments into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which amounted to 348.5 million dollars last week.

Support and resistance

Technically, the asset is trying to leave the long-term downward channel and is actively testing its upper boundary. A breakout of 65625.00 (Murrey level [5/8]) will allow quotes to continue growing to targets of 68750.00 (Murrey level [6/8]), 71875.00 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 75000.00 (Murrey level [8/8]). If the price consolidates back below 62500.00 (Murrey level [4/8]), supported by the central line of Bollinger Bands, the downward dynamics may intensify to levels of 56250.00 (Murrey level [2/8]) and 53125.00 (Murrey level [1/8]).

Technical indicators do not give a clear signal: Bollinger Bands are horizontal, MACD is increasing in the positive zone, while Stochastic is directed upwards, but enters the overbought zone, which may signal a reversal.

Resistance levels: 65625.00, 68750.00, 71875.00, 75000.00.

Support levels: 62500.00, 56250.00, 53125.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below 62500.00 with targets at 56250.00, 53125.00 and a stop-loss at 64600.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Long positions can be opened above 65625.00 with targets at 68750.00, 71875.00, 75000.00 and a stop-loss at 63300.00.