Current trend

The USD/JPY pair has been rising since mid-September and has currently reached 154.00, influenced by the Bank of Japan's temporary refusal to tighten monetary policy and Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election.

In September, Japanese officials kept the key rate at 0.25% and are unlikely to adjust it anytime soon, as inflation in the country is slowing: in October, the consumer price index (CPI) in the Tokyo metropolitan area decreased from 2.1% to 1.8%, falling below the target level, and the national index in September declined from 3.0% to 2.5%, although it remained above the target. Thus, inflation indicators in the Japanese economy contradict plans to raise interest rates. In addition, new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has also spoken out against such steps.

It should be noted that the Japanese authorities may again resort to currency interventions to support the yen – this was hinted at today by the top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura. However, analysts assume that such a step will only have a short-term effect, and the general trend of weakening of the yen is likely to continue.

Donald Trump's return to the White House increases pressure on assets alternative to the dollar. Experts believe that he may introduce duties on foreign exports and reduce taxes, which in the long term may have a positive impact on the economy, contributing to the strengthening of the American currency. In these conditions, further growth of the USD/JPY pair in the medium term looks like the most likely scenario.

Support and resistance

Technically, the asset has consolidated above 153.12 (Murrey level [ 1/8]), which opens the possibility of continued growth to levels of 156.25 (Murrey level [ 2/8]) and 159.37 (Murrey level [7/8], W1). The key level for the “bears” seems to be 150.00 (Murrey level [8/8]) below the central line of Bollinger Bands, a breakdown of which will ensure the resumption of the downtrend to the targets of 146.87 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 143.75 (Murrey level [6/8]), but this scenario seems less likely for now.

Technical indicators confirm the continuation of the uptrend: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are directed upward, MACD is stable in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 156.25, 159.37.

Support levels: 150.00, 146.87, 143.75.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from 154.40 with targets at 156.25, 159.37 and a stop-loss at 152.90. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions should be opened below 150.00 with targets at 146.87, 143.75 and a stop-loss at 152.00.