Pound Sterling consolidates as UK Employment data takes centre stage

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  • The Pound Sterling trades in a tight range as investors await the UK Employment data for the three months ending September.
  • The UK Unemployment Rate is estimated to have increased to 4.1%.
  • The US Dollar will be influenced by the US inflation data for October.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) exhibits a mixed performance against its major peers on Monday, in a calm start of the week as investors keep their powder dry ahead of the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for the three months ending September, which will be released on Tuesday. The jobs data could significantly influence market expectations for the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision in the December meeting. 

Economists expect that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1% in the three months to September from 4.0% in the quarter ending August. Investors will also pay close attention to the Average Earnings data, a key measure of wage growth that drives consumer spending. The growth in earnings has been a major contributor to high inflation in the services sector, which is closely tracked by BoE officials for decision-making on interest rates.

The Average Earnings Excluding bonuses are expected to have grown by 4.7%, slower than the former reading of 4.9%. Softer wage growth would lift expectations of more interest rate cuts by the BoE as it will suggest a further decline in inflation in the service sector. On the contrary, higher wage growth would do the opposite. Average Earnings including bonuses are estimated to have accelerated to 3.9% from the prior release of 3.8%.



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