EUR/USD has remained under intense pressure from a broad USD rally and may well make a move below 1.06 today if the US core CPI comes in at 0.3% MoM, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR to trade at 1.04 in the end of the year

“Despite the size of the recent EUR/USD drop, we must note that 1.060 is the short-term fair value level implied by short-term rate differentials. The USD:EUR two-year swap rate gap has continued to widen rapidly, and is currently around 185bp.”

“In other words, there is not much additional risk premium being added to EUR/USD compared to what rates are suggesting, as markets are doubling down on expectations that the ECB will slash rates more than the Fed ahead of the tariff impact on growth. We are, by all means, in the dovish camp with our ECB call, and actually think markets are still underpricing (30bp) the chances of a 50bp cut in December.”