United States of America

USD is strengthening against its main competitors – EUR, JPY, and GBP.

Today, weekly data on the labor market, as well as statistics on producer prices for October, were published. The number of initial jobless claims increased by 217.0 thousand, which was lower than both the forecast of 224.0 thousand and the previous benefit of 221.0 thousand, while the total number of citizens receiving assistance from the state decreased from 1.884 million to 1.873 million. Thus, the labor market remains resilient to the current measures of the US Federal Reserve, although it shows weak signs of cooling. The producer price index (PPI) in October increased from 0.1% to 0.2% MoM and from 1.9% to 2.4% YoY, against preliminary estimates of 2.3%, while the base indicator increased from 0.2% to 0.3% MoM and from 2.9% to 3.1% YoY instead of 3.0%. Thus, inflationary pressure in the country remains significantly higher than the regulator’s target of 2.0% and is showing signs of growth, increasing the likelihood that officials will refuse another 25 basis point cut in the key rate in December.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against JPY, weakening against USD and has ambiguous dynamics in pair with GBP.

Today, a series of economic data was published, the most important of which were preliminary data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter: QoQ, the European economy grew by 0.4%, and YoY, by 0.9%, which met experts' expectations. Thus, since the beginning of the month, the indicator has been increasing the growth rate, but in the medium term, this process may be replaced by a decline if the new American administration decides to introduce additional tariffs on imports into the United States. Such actions will have the most negative impact on Germany's GDP, which may lead to a reduction in the overall European indicator. Also published today were data on industrial production in European countries, which turned out to be negative: MoM, the indicator fell by 2.0% instead of the expected decline of 1.3%, and YoY – by 2.8% instead of 2.0%. Also worth noting are the comments of the Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Luis de Guindos, who confirmed the regulator's determination to continue cutting interest rates as inflation approaches the target level of 2.0%.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against JPY, weakening against USD and showing ambiguous dynamics in pair with EUR.

Investors focused on data from the UK's Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), according to which house prices in October grew at the fastest pace in two years: the index rose from 11.0 points to 16.0 points, the highest since September 2022. However, analysts at the institute note that the indicator was calculated based on a survey conducted before the presentation of the new government budget by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, so it did not consider its negative impact on the housing sector. Experts expect that the rise in bond yields after the publication of the main financial document, as well as a general increase in expectations regarding interest rates, will likely become an obstacle to further expansion of the housing market in the short term.

Japan

JPY is weakening against its main competitor – EUR, GBP, and USD.

Tomorrow at 01:50 (GMT 2), investors will pay attention to preliminary data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter: economic growth may slow from 0.7% to 0.2% QoQ and from 2.9% to 0.8% YoY, allowing officials of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) not to tighten monetary parameters at the next meeting. Market participants will also focus on September data on industrial production: according to forecasts, the indicator will be fixed at around 1.4%.

Australia

AUD is weakening against EUR and USD but has ambiguous dynamics in pair with JPY and GBP.

Investors are focused on the publication of October labor market data, which turned out to be mixed: unemployment remained at 4.1%, while total employment slowed from 61.3 thousand to 15.9 thousand, and full employment – from 48.8 thousand to 9.7 thousand, reflecting the slowest pace of recovery in seven months. Experts note that officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are not yet confident that the labor market will be under the necessary pressure, and inflation will continue to decline steadily, and in these conditions the regulator is unlikely to decide to cut interest rates before February.

Oil

Oil prices resumed their growth today: quotes are supported by the official confirmation of the appointment of former Senator Marco Rubio as the new US Secretary of State.

The official has already stated that he will ensure “peace through force”, in which experts see new hints of expanding sanctions against Iran. In this case, the supply of oil produced in the Islamic Republic to the market will be significantly complicated. Also contributing to the growth of prices is the report on US oil reserves published the day before by the American Petroleum Institute (API), which recorded a decrease of 0.777 million barrels, instead of the expected growth of 1.000 million barrels. Today, investors will pay attention to the publication of a similar report from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA): it is predicted that reserves will grow by 0.400 million barrels, putting pressure on energy quotes.