Current dynamics

The AUD/USD pair is correcting in a downward trend at the level of 0.6464: the Australian currency is trying to develop an upward trend supported by positive macroeconomic statistics, but still remains close to the lows of late summer.

In October, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, supported by employment growth of 36.8 thousand to 14.537 million. The number of unemployed people added 0.8 thousand, increasing to 623.5 thousand, the full-time employment rate – 9.7 thousand to 10.037 million, and the underemployment rate – by 6.2 thousand to 4.499 million. As a result, the employment-to-population ratio remained at 64.4%, and the share of the economically active population decreased from 67.2% to 67.1%. Economists at the National Australia Bank have revised their forecasts for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next steps: previously, it was assumed that monetary policy easing would begin in February, but now it is expected that this will not happen until at least May amid a strengthening labor market and persistent risks of accelerating inflation.

After Friday's correction, the US dollar is at 106.50 in USDX today, as investors assess the likelihood of the Fed's dovish rhetoric continuing, with a 65.0% chance of a -25 basis point interest rate change in December, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, after which regulators will take a break to assess the dynamics of the consumer price index. Last week, the head of the department, Jerome Powell, said that the final decision would depend on macroeconomic statistics, primarily on inflation and the labor market.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting above the support line of the “expanding formation” pattern with dynamic boundaries of 0.6950–0.6300.

Technical indicators strengthen the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are directed downwards, remaining at a stable distance from the signal line, and the AO histogram is falling in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6490, 0.6590.

Support levels: 0.6440, 0.6350.

Trading scenarios

Short positions can be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.6440 with a target of 0.6350. Stop loss is 0.6500. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions can be opened after the price rises and consolidates above the level of 0.6490 with the target at 0.6590. Stop loss is 0.6420.