The European gas market is in turmoil: after an arbitration court awarded an Austrian energy company a large sum in compensation in a dispute with its Russian supplier, the former wants to offset the claim immediately, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

There is no longer any dependence on the Russian gas supplier

“According to media reports, the next payment date for gas deliveries is 20 November; however, there are concerns that deliveries may be interrupted before then. Yesterday, the European reference price TTF climbed to just under 46 EUR per mWh. However, there are also some facts that put this into perspective: Firstly, according to Eurostat, Austria only accounted for a good 3% of total EU gas imports in 2023.”

“Secondly, although the share of Russian supplies was over 80% of Austrian gas imports in recent months, it was significantly lower in 2023. And thirdly, the expiration of the transit agreement with Ukraine threatened to cut off gas supplies anyway. Not least for this reason, precautions were taken in advance. Since the storage tanks in Austria are over 90% full, there is no threat of supply bottlenecks in the short term.”