Canada releases inflation figures for October today. Expectations are for a rebound in headline CPI to 1.9% YoY while core measures are seen stabilising around 2.4%, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

USD/CAD to end the year below 1.40

“This is the last CPI report the Bank of Canada will see before the 11 December meeting, meaning the release can have deep implications for market pricing, which currently embeds nearly even chances of a 25bp or 50bp cut.”

“The other two major inputs for the BoC will be GDP data on 29 November and the November jobs report on 6 December. We still see a 25bp move as more likely as both activity and inflation seem to be stabilising and markets have scaled back some Fed easing expectations.”

“We see a case for some modest tightening in the USD:CAD 2-year swap rate gap from the current 100bp level, which can put a cap on USD/CAD in the near term. We still expect the pair to end the year below 1.40.”