Traders await the flash US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment report scheduled to be released on Friday.
The Judo Bank PMI Composite Output Index dropped to 49.4 in November from 50.2 in October, indicating a modest contraction in private sector output for the second time in three months.
US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 213,000 for the week ending November 15, down from a revised 219,000 (previously 217,000) in the prior week and below the expected 220,000.
The US Dollar gained ground due to the cautious remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Additionally, market expectations suggest that the incoming Donald Trump administration will spur inflation, thereby slowing the rate cut trajectory from the Fed, lending support to the Greenback.
A Reuters poll indicated that nearly 90% of economists (94 out of 106) anticipate a 25bps cut in December, lowering the fed funds rate to 4.25%-4.50%. Economists predict shallower rate cuts in 2025 due to the risk of higher inflation from President-elect Trump's policies. The fed funds rate is forecasted to be 3.50%-3.75% by the end of 2025, which is 50bps higher than last month’s projection.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's November Meeting Minutes indicated that the central bank’s board remains vigilant about the potential for further inflation, stressing the importance of maintaining a restrictive monetary policy. Although board members noted no "immediate need" to alter the cash rate, they kept options open for future adjustments, emphasizing that all possibilities remain on the table.
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins stated on Wednesday that while more interest rate cuts are necessary, policymakers should proceed cautiously to avoid moving too quickly or too slowly, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman highlighted that inflation remained elevated over the past few months and stressed the need for the Fed to proceed cautiously with rate cuts.
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