USD/JPY: Downside play – OCBC

USD/JPY turned lower, amid pullback in UST yields and USD. Bessent relief is the latest trigger behind the USD pullback. Pair was last at 154.41 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/JPY’s travel may be bumpy

“Last Thu, Governor Ueda mentioned there would be vast amount of data and information between now and the next BoJ meeting, suggesting the December meeting is a live one; he opined that the central bank will seriously assess the impact of FX rate (level) on inflation and the economy. We still look for USD/JPY to trend lower, premised on Fed cut cycle while the BoJ has room to further pursue policy normalisation.”

“On the data front Japan core CPI rose this morning, alongside services PMI, reinforcing our view that BoJ should proceed with another hike next month. Divergence in Fed-BoJ policies should bring about further narrowing of UST-JGB yield differentials and this should underpin the broader direction of travel for USD/JPY to the downside. Elsewhere, escalation in geopolitical tensions may also support safe-haven demand (positive JPY).”