The ongoing trend

WTI crude oil prices consolidate near 68.40: Market activity is quite weak on Thursday morning as stock exchanges and banks in the US are closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday. At the same time, investors continue to analyze the statistical data released the previous day.

Markets were paying attention to a moderate increase in durable goods orders in October, up 0.2%, after a 0.4% decline in the previous month, while analysts had expected 0.5%. The index excluding transport fell from 0.4% to 0.1%, against a forecast of 0.2%. The core personal consumption expenditures index rose from 2.7% to 2.8% in October, indicating a slight increase in inflation risks in the country. However, this is unlikely to have much impact on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future interest rate decisions. Personal incomes of US households rose from 0.3% to 0.6%, while spending fell from 0.6% to 0.4%, against a forecast of 0.3%. Finally, final gross domestic product (GDP) data for the third quarter confirmed a strengthening of the economy by 2.8%.

Russian oil exports by sea slipped to the lowest level in two months, reflecting the fastest negative momentum since July. According to Bloomberg, it was due to a reduction in purchases by India, while shipments to Asia fell to 2.76 million bpd last month. Last week, 20.5 million barrels of Russian crude, or 2.93 million bpd, were loaded into tankers, while the volume last month was 3.57 million bpd.

In general, the oil market is in a long correction phase: according to the report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions on WTI crude oil increased from 186.9 thousand to 193.9 thousand last week. Investors in all categories recorded significant inflows this week, with the balance of bulls among producers amounting to 430.734 thousand against 345.744 thousand among bears. Over the past week, buyers have increased the number of contracts by 26.183 thousand, and sellers by 14.899 thousand. This statistic signals a significant increase in demand for the asset.

Yesterday, statistics on stocks of petroleum products in the USA were published: according to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), for the week ending November 22, they decreased by 1.844 million barrels after a correction of 0.545 million barrels previously, while experts expected -1.300 million barrels. At the same time, the production of black gold increased by 292.0 thousand barrels per day to 13.493 million barrels per day.

support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are recording an unstable reversal movement to the horizontal: the price range is trying to fix itself within sufficiently wide limits for the current trading activity. The MACD indicator is declining and provides a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). The Stochastic oscillator, which was approaching the 20 mark, turned horizontal, which indicates the risks of an oversold instrument in the ultra-short term perspective.

Supports: 67.90, 67.00, 66.00, 64.71.

Resistances: 69.06, 70.00, 71.00, 71.60.

trading tips

Short positions are intact after the robust downside break of the 67.90 mark with a target of 66.00 and a stop loss of 69.06. Validity: 2-3 days.

The return of bullish momentum with the upward breakout of the 69.06 mark signals long positions with a price target of 71.00 and a stop loss at 67.90.