The ongoing trend

During the morning, the USD/TRY currency pair recorded momentum close to zero and is now holding close to the high of 34.6500. However, market activity has noticeably decreased in recent days. The trading venues in the US are closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday, so the markets are not expecting any significant fluctuations in prices during the day.

US investors estimated durable goods orders to grow from -0.4% to 0.2% in October, versus forecasts of 0.5%. Non-transport orders revised down from 0.4% to 0.1%, versus 0.2% expected. The core personal consumption expenditures index accelerated from 2.7% to 2.8%, which is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Fed's monetary policy decisions. Household personal income rose from 0.3% to 0.6%, versus analysts' expectations of no change. Spending slowed from 0.6% to 0.4%, versus estimates of 0.3%. Finally, gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a 2.8% increase in the third quarter.

The lira's exchange rate is weighed down by the country's ongoing domestic economic problems: On November 21, the Turkish Central Bank left the interest rate at 50.00% for the eighth time. It was noted that the current monetary conditions are conducive to further normalization of inflation. Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek expected a tighter fiscal framework for 2025 and reiterated the government's commitment to the disinflation strategy, although he admitted that this problem is very complex and will take a long time to solve. Hawkish monetary policy, fiscal measures and base effects have caused the annual consumer price index to fall from a high of 75.45 percent in May to 48.58 percent in October. The Turkish monetary authority estimates that the index will end the year at 44.0%-45.0%, slightly above the initial targets. Earlier this month, the regulator revised its forecasts for the end of the year and next year to 44.00% and 21.00% respectively, although they had previously been at 38.00% and 14.00%. Nevertheless, households expect the inflation rate to fall to 64.10% in 12 months (down 3.10% from October), it said in a November report.

support and resistance

In the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are moving slightly upwards: the price range is also changing slightly, allowing for another update of the highs. The MACD indicator is growing and continues to provide a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). The Stochastic oscillator is near the highs, which indicates the risks of the overbought US currency in the ultra-short term perspective.

Supports: 34.5957, 34.5450, 34.5000, 34.4091.

Resistances: 34.6696, 34.7500, 34.8000, 34.8500.

trading tips

Short positions are current after the downward breakout of the 34.5957 mark with a price target of 34.4091 and stop loss at 34.6696. Validity: 2-3 days.

Long positions are intact after the upside breakout of the 34.6696 level with a target of 34.8000 and a stop loss of 34.5957.