Current dynamics

XAG/USD is falling to 29.85 after breaking the 30.15 support level amid rhetoric from US President-elect Donald Trump on tariffs, cryptocurrencies and global uncertainty.

After the inauguration of the new head of the White House on January 20, experts expect significant changes in both domestic and foreign policy: first of all, decisions will be aimed at combating illegal immigration and introducing trade tariffs for the EU, China, Mexico and Canada. Then it is planned to create a nationwide reserve in BTC, as well as to resolve global crises and conflicts. According to analysts, these actions will lead to an acceleration of inflation, an increase in demand for the dollar, cryptocurrencies and a decline in the prices of precious metals, which is already visible after the decision of Israel and Lebanon to conclude an agreement, as a result of which silver lost 4.3%.

The silver futures market is seeing a correction: according to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in this metal fell from 47.6 thousand to 46.3 thousand. If we pay attention to the dynamics, the bulls maintain their advantage even against the backdrop of the ongoing outflow of investors. According to the report, their balance of positions secured by real money is 40.593 thousand, compared to 14.697 thousand for the bears. Last week, buyers liquidated 0.492 thousand contracts, and sellers 2.327 thousand.

The long-term trend remains bullish, but a correction is currently developing, with the trading instrument testing the 30.15 support level, after consolidation below which it is expected to reach the trend line of 27.83, where long positions with targets of 30.15, 32.40 and 34.20 will become relevant. The RSI (14) indicator is falling, approaching the oversold zone, and as soon as it enters it, there will be a signal to consider long positions.

The medium-term trend is down: in mid-November, the price reached zone 2 (30.06-29.82), corrected and continued to decline to the low of November 14. After consolidation of quotations below zone 2, the next target will be zone 3 (27.56-27.31), but otherwise an upward correction from the trend resistance area of 32.17-31.94 is expected.

Support and resistance levels

Resistance levels: 32.40, 34.20, 35.50.

Support levels: 30.15, 27.83, 26.55.

Trading scenarios

Short positions can be opened below 29.55 with a target at 27.83 and a stop loss at 30.19. Execution time: 9–12 days.

Long positions can be opened above 30.75 with a target at 32.40 and a stop-loss at 30.15.