Lawrence Tan: Market Trends Under Multiple Policy Crosscurrents

Recently, oil prices have declined for a second consecutive day, drawing market attention to the energy sector and trade policies. The U.S. Federal Appeals Court ruled that the global tariff measures by President Trump may continue to be enforced, a decision that had an immediate impact on the energy markets. The volatility in the crude oil market reflects not only the dynamics of energy supply and demand but also the externalization of global macro policy games. Lawrence Tan will analyze the political and market logic behind oil price fluctuations, explore the potential implications for investors, and assess future directions for asset allocation.

Weakened Oil Price Momentum

Lawrence Tan believes that the recent downward trend in oil prices is directly influenced by heightened global policy uncertainty. The U.S. court decision to allow the continuation of global tariffs has dampened global trade liquidity and indirectly pressured the oil markets.

Within this structural adjustment of international oil prices, investors are facing increasingly complex political signals. The uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies impacts manufacturing procurement costs and also affects expectations for demand in crude oil and energy commodities. Lawrence Tan points out that when the market outlook for future demand in manufacturing and transportation weakens, oil prices struggle to hold at higher levels.

Brent crude has established a clear resistance zone between $65 and $67, with a low probability of a short-term breakout. This is closely tied to the rising risk-aversion sentiment among investors. In the face of policy disturbances, investors tend to reduce their exposure to high-risk assets, thereby intensifying market volatility. Lawrence Tan emphasizes the need for investors to pay closer attention to medium-term macro policy trends, especially developments in trade agreements and adjustments in energy taxation.

Finding Rhythm Amid Volatility

Lawrence Tan asserts that oil price volatility does not mean investors should avoid the energy sector; instead, it presents new opportunities for asset reallocation. Compared to traditional trend-following strategies, policy-sensitive quantitative timing strategies are now more suitable for dynamically adapting to high-volatility environments.

Energy ETFs offer opportunities for strategic positioning during pullbacks, but investors should be mindful of the sensitivity of asset management to policy news. Algorithmic models driven by headline events significantly outperform traditional valuation models based on financial statements in the current environment. Lawrence Tan suggests that during periods of rising Brent futures volatility, investors can employ straddle options strategies to navigate directional uncertainty, while closely tracking Federal Reserve policies and the trajectory of U.S. tariff adjustments.

On the technical front, the correction in oil prices has led to a valuation recovery for certain energy stocks, creating entry points for value-oriented strategies. Among upstream energy companies with stable supply and healthy balance sheets, there are potentially undervalued assets that have been mispriced by the market. Lawrence Tan notes that such companies possess strong rebound capabilities during market recoveries.

Rationality and Strategic Priority

Amid declining oil prices and intertwined policy uncertainties, the market has entered a highly sensitive and structured phase. Lawrence Tan underscores the importance of returning to rationality and reconstructing investment systems with a strategy-first mindset. The market now faces multiple variables, including OPEC production policies, Federal Reserve interest rate directions, and the pace of global manufacturing recovery. Oil prices are expected to exhibit more cyclical and localized rebound patterns.

Lawrence Tan stresses that the core of portfolio strategy lies in risk control and return balancing through multi-strategy synergy. In an environment where energy, industrial, and technology sectors rotate, flexibly adjusting portfolio structures will be key for investors to navigate volatility. Amid policy shifts, maintaining an acute sense of macro trends and building a diversified, dynamic asset allocation framework is the most reliable principle in the present-day market environment.