EBC Markets Briefing | ​Oil down after Trump targeted Brazil

Oil prices dropped on Thursday after Trump announced that Brazil will be hit by a punitive 50% tariff on exports. OPEC+ agreed to speed up output hike on Sunday despite global economic uncertainty.

The agency said that summer demand was one reason for their optimism. Saudi Aramco hiked the premiums it charges for its flagship crude to customers in its key Asian market by more than traders had anticipated.

The actual output increase has been smaller than planned so far and most of the supply has been from Saudi Arabia, analysts said. Trump should have been satisfied as he repeatedly called for cheaper fuel costs.

But potential supply gut will hurt America's oil industry. Exxon Mobil, whose shares gained around 8% so far, signaled lower oil and gas prices could cut its Q2 by about $1.5 billion from the previous quarter's level.

Barclays has raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved outlook for demand. It still expected a gradual slowdown in shale activity.

US crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the EIA said on Wednesday. Adding to price support, gasoline demand rose 6% to 9.2 million bpd.

Brent crude failed to continue its upside beyond $70 so we see the level as a strong resistance. The price may head slightly higher, but it is unlikely to surprise given Trump's move.

EBC Forex Market Analysis Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC Industry In-depth Analysis or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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