U.S. Jobless Claims in Focus as Fed Eyes Rate Path

August 7, 2025 — Investors are closely watching today’s US's initial jobless claims report for signs of labor market weakness that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next move. While the Fed is not scheduled to meet in August, the Jackson Hole Symposium later this month may offer clues on future rate cuts.

Rate Forecast and Fed Outlook

The Fed Funds Rate is forecast to average just above 3% in 2025, with a median estimate of 3.4%.

Markets expect the Fed to resume its rate-cutting cycle in September, especially if jobless claims continue to rise.

Labor Market Snapshot

Initial claims are projected at 221,000, slightly above last week’s 218,000.

Continued claims are also expected to increase, reinforcing concerns about a slowing labor market.

Forex Market Reaction

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) opened August at 98.15, with a forecast range between 95.44 and 100.59.

EUR/USD and USD/JPY remain sensitive to labor data, with potential for dollar softness if claims exceed expectations.

Key Economic Events: USD - US Unemployment Claims

Previous Rate: 218,000 Forecast Rate: 221,000

Actual Rate: 226,000