EBC Markets Briefing | Crude prices slip as India confronts Trump

Oil prices fell on Thursday as investors weighed the outlook for US fuel demand with the end of the summer driving season near, while assessing potential crude supply shifts as India faces secondary tariffs.

The EIA reported y that US crude inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels in the week ended 22 August, compared with analysts' expectations for a 1.9-million-barrel draw, which signals strong demand.

Traders are watching out for how New Delhi responds to pressure from Washington to stop buying Russian oil, after Trump has doubled tariffs on imports from India to as much as 50%.

Russia launched a massive drone attack on energy and gas transport infrastructure across six Ukrainian regions overnight. Kremlin stepped up its military operation since Putin met Trump in Alaska.

Goldman said Brent prices are likely to remain near those of forward contracts during the rest of 2025 but fall below those contracts next year as the increase in OECD stock accelerates.

However, it said potential acceleration in the growth of Chinese stock to 0.8 million bpd from 0.4 bpd in the year to date would raise the 2026 Brent average by $6 a barrel versus the bank's baseline to $62.

Brent crude failed to push above $67.45 and another leg lower is in the cards given the head and shoulder pattern. We see it drop to $66.4 later this week.

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