​EBC Markets Briefing | Crude prices up as war intensifies

Oil prices edged up on Friday, on track to rise at their steepest rate since early June as Ukraine's attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure had let to restriction of fuel exports and close to cutting crude output.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday the country would introduce a partial ban on diesel exports until the end of the year and extend an existing ban on gasoline exports.

Both benchmarks reached their highest levels since 1 August this week, driven by a surprise drop in US weekly crude inventories in addition to concerns about supply disruption amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Trump said Tuesday afternoon that he thinks Ukraine, with help from the EU, could win back its territory from Russia and return the country to its original borders – a major shift from his long-held stance.

Commercial crude oil stocks were down by a more-than-expected 607,000 barrels in the week ended 19 September, and were about 4% below the five-year average for the time of year, the EIA said.

US GDP increased at an upwardly revised 3.8% annualized rate last quarter, powered by an increase in consumer spending. That marked the fastest growth since the third quarter of 2023.

WTI crude has decisively broken above the resistance of $64.94, but it may need to overcome $65.7 to reverse the medium-term downtrend. It could lose momentum above $65.

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