Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of October 6 - 11, 2025

Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of October 6–11, 2025 (GMT+8)

🇳🇿 RBNZ Rate Decision (Wed, 09:00)
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut its policy rate to 2.75% from 3.00%, signaling a dovish shift amid slowing domestic growth. Markets will watch for any forward guidance on additional easing.
🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories (Wed, 22:30)
Following last week’s draw of 1.792M barrels, traders will track new inventory data for clues on U.S. energy demand and inflation implications.
🇺🇸 10-Year Note Auction (Thu, 01:00)
The latest auction yield at 4.03% will reflect investor sentiment toward long-term inflation and Fed policy.
🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting Minutes (Thu, 03:00)
Minutes from the latest Fed meeting could offer insights into how close policymakers are to ending the tightening cycle. Any mention of inflation persistence may spark volatility in USD pairs.
🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Speaks (Thu, 20:30)
A key highlight of the week—markets will dissect every word for signs of policy bias. Any hawkish tone could lift U.S. yields and strengthen the dollar.
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (Thu, 20:30)
Forecast 223K vs 218K prior. A slight uptick suggests labor softening, though levels remain consistent with a stable jobs market.
🇺🇸 30-Year Bond Auction (Fri, 01:00)
Expected yield 4.65%, showing investors’ longer-term inflation outlook and demand for Treasuries.
🇺🇸 U.S. Labor Market Data (Fri, 20:30)
- Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) forecast 0.30%, steady from prior.
- Nonfarm Payrolls expected 52K vs 22K prior, showing a modest rebound in hiring.
- Unemployment Rate forecast 4.30%, unchanged.
These labor indicators will heavily influence expectations for the Fed’s December policy meeting.

Macro Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Economy & Fed Outlook
- Labor Market: Jobless claims remain near 220K and NFP rebound signals cooling but resilient employment conditions.
- Inflation Pressure: Steady wage growth and bond yields above 4% suggest persistent inflation expectations.
- Policy Direction: Powell’s tone and FOMC minutes could reaffirm a “higher-for-longer” stance unless data shows further labor cooling.
🇳🇿 RBNZ Policy Outlook
Rate cuts to 2.75% highlight a dovish pivot as growth slows and inflation pressures ease, possibly weighing on NZD in the near term.

Speculative Outlook for USD Traders
🟢 Bullish USD Scenario
- Stronger NFP rebound (above 52K) and Powell’s hawkish tone reinforce Fed’s higher-for-longer bias.
- Treasury yields stay elevated above 4%, supporting USD demand.
Trade Ideas: Long USD/JPY, short EUR/USD.
🔴 Bearish USD Scenario
- Weaker payrolls or dovish Fed remarks point to a policy pause.
- Jobless claims above 230K could signal labor cooling and soften USD.
Trade Ideas: Long gold, long EUR/USD.
🟡 Wild Card
- Any surprise from RBNZ or a major drop in oil inventories could spark cross-market volatility.

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