Gold (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

1. Gold (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Bias: Bullish (Buy Side favored).

The rise in unemployment to 4.6% is the primary driver here, fueling bets that the Fed will cut rates aggressively in 2026. This weakens the Dollar and boosts Gold.

• Current Price Structure: Gold has confirmed a breakout above previous consolidation. The market is looking to buy dips rather than sell highs.

• Key Buy Zone (Entry): 4200 – 4203

  • Why? This area was a previous resistance that has flipped to support. A pullback here offers a high probability entry.

• Stop Loss (SL): 4190 (Tight) or 4175 (Structural).

  • Reasoning: A drop below 4175 would invalidate the immediate bullish breakout.

• Take Profit (TP) Targets:

  • TP1: 4250 (Intraday resistance)

  • TP2: 4315 – 4318 (Major sell zone/profit taking area)

  • TP3: 4380  (All-Time Highs)

Analyst Note: Watch the 4220 level. If price holds above this intraday, aggressive buyers may step in early.

2. EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

Bias: Bullish (Buy Side favored).

The pair is trending higher as the Dollar Index (DXY) struggles below key support.

• Current Price Structure: EUR/USD has broken above the 1.1700 handle. It is currently testing resistance zones.

• Immediate Support (Buy Entry): 1.1745 – 1.1755

  • Why? This is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If price dips into this zone and shows rejection (wicks), it is a buy signal.

• Deep Support (Conservative Entry): 1.1685

  • Why? If the market corrects deeper, this is the "line in the sand" where major buyers sit.

• Stop Loss (SL): Below 1.1650.

• Take Profit (TP) Targets:

  • TP1: 1.1800 (Psychological resistance & channel top)

  • TP2: 1.1865 (Measured move target)

Summary of Trade Setups (Action Plan)

Risk Warning: Following NFP, volatility can remain high for 24-48 hours. Ensure your position size is calculated so that a hit to your Stop Loss does not risk more than 1-2% of your account.

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