🌅 Morning Update | 07.01.2026

🌏 Global markets

Risk appetite remains fragile at the start of the session. Asian equities are mixed: Japanese and Hong Kong indices are under pressure, while mainland China and Australia are showing modest gains. Wall Street ended the previous session at fresh record highs, but US futures are softer as investors reassess geopolitical risks and position cautiously ahead of key macro signals.

🌍 Geopolitics (as of this morning)

Geopolitical risk remains the dominant macro theme. Venezuela is still in sharp focus after the US military operation and the detention of Nicolás Maduro, with markets closely watching the political transition and potential changes in control over oil exports. Uncertainty around the pace and scale of any supply reconfiguration continues to influence energy pricing.

In Eastern Europe, tensions remain elevated as Western countries reaffirm long-term political and military support for Ukraine, keeping hopes for near-term de-escalation low. This backdrop continues to support demand for defensive assets and the US dollar.

The Middle East remains a source of persistent headline risk. While there has been no major overnight escalation, the situation continues to underpin a geopolitical risk premium across oil and precious metals.

Overall, markets remain highly sensitive to political developments, with investors reluctant to materially increase risk exposure while multiple geopolitical flashpoints remain unresolved.

💵 US dollar & rates

The US dollar is trading firm and near recent highs, supported by resilient US growth expectations, stable Treasury yields, and safe-haven demand. In the current environment, the dollar continues to act as a defensive anchor, benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty and cautious positioning ahead of US macro data. Short-term moves will depend on today’s releases, but the broader bias remains constructive while yields stay supported.

🛢️ Oil

Oil prices are edging lower despite elevated geopolitical risks. The market remains focused on supply fundamentals and inventory expectations, with Brent hovering just below $60 per barrel. Political risk premiums persist, but are currently being offset by oversupply concerns and cautious demand assumptions.

🥇 Metals

Gold is holding close to record highs, supported by safe-haven demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Buying interest continues to emerge on pullbacks, keeping the broader trend intact.

🪙 Crypto

bitcoin is consolidating in the $92,000–93,000 range. Price action remains sensitive to broader risk sentiment and US dollar dynamics, with traders cautious amid elevated geopolitical and macro uncertainty.

📅 Today’s focus

Markets are bracing for increased volatility around US macro releases, which could set the tone for FX, metals, and crypto into the second half of the week.

👉 Stay alert as markets react to geopolitics and data – follow NordFX and trade the session with discipline.