Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of January 19-24, 2026

Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of January 19 - 24, 2026 (GMT+8)
This week’s macro calendar is driven by the Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Statement (Thu 03:00) and the FOMC Press Conference (Thu 03:30) as the main USD volatility anchors (UTC+8). Mid-week, Trump Speaks (Wed 21:30) can add headline-driven swings, while BoC Rate Decision (Wed 22:45) is the key CAD risk event.
Later in the week, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 21:30) and U.S. PPI (Fri 21:30) shape rates expectations, with Chicago PMI (Fri 22:45) as the activity check. Outside the U.S., German GDP (Fri 17:00) + German CPI (Fri 21:00) can move EUR risk tone, and China Manufacturing PMI (Sat 09:30) may influence Asia open positioning.

🇨🇦 BoC Rate Decision – Wed: Even without a change, forward guidance can swing CAD crosses quickly. A hawkish tilt strengthens CAD (pressures USDCAD); a dovish signal does the opposite.

🇺🇸 U.S. Labour Pulse (Initial Claims) – Thu: Claims is the “stress check” on growth. Lower claims support a tight-labour narrative (USD/yields supportive). 

🇺🇸 U.S. Inflation Pipeline (PPI MoM) – Fri: PPI can shift near-term inflation expectations and reinforce (or fade) Thursday’s Fed-driven repricing. 

🇺🇸 U.S. Activity & Sentiment (Durable Goods + CB Confidence + Chicago PMI): These help validate the growth narrative across the week. Weak prints can amplify growth concerns; stronger prints support risk and keep USD supported via relative yields.

🇺🇸 Headline Risk (Trump Speaks) – Wed: Speech-driven volatility can trigger fast repositioning across USD, equities, and rates, especially into FOMC.
🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories – Wed: Inventory surprises can move oil quickly, feeding into inflation expectations and oil-sensitive FX. 

🇪🇺 Germany GDP + CPI – Fri: These can shift EUR rate expectations and spill into broader USD positioning via relative-yield repricing.

🇨🇳 China Manufacturing PMI – Sat: A key Asia risk-tone input (commodities + regional sentiment). A stronger print supports risk/commodities; a weaker print can lean risk-off.

Speculative Outlook for USD Traders:
This is an FOMC + late-week inflation/activity confirmation week, so positioning can reprice fast depending on guidance, yields, and follow-through data.
🟢 Bullish USD Scenario
 FOMC tone is hawkish / guidance signals sticky inflation risks
 Claims come in below expectations (labour stays tight)
 PPI prints firmer (inflation pipeline stays warm)
 Chicago PMI stabilizes / improves (activity resilience narrative)
 Oil inventories show a draw that lifts crude and inflation expectations

🔴 Bearish USD Scenario
 FOMC tone is softer and guidance leans toward easing risk
 Claims surprise higher (growth cooling signal)
 PPI comes in softer (disinflation narrative strengthens)
 Chicago PMI weakens further (activity concern increases)
 Oil inventories show a build (crude pressure, inflation fears cool)

🟡 Wild Cards (High Whipsaw Risk)
 Statement vs press conference tone mismatch (initial spike then reversal)
 Speech-driven volatility (policy/geopolitical tone impacting risk)
 BoC guidance surprises and triggers CAD spillover into broad USD flows
 Late-week Europe data (German GDP/CPI) shifting global rates/risk to the close

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