🌏 Morning Update - 18 February 2026

Asia-Pacific markets are trading with a mildly positive tone this morning. Australia’s AU200.cash is up 0.18%, Japan’s JP225 is adding 0.22%, and Singapore’s SG20cash is rising 0.17%. Mainland Chinese markets remain closed for the Lunar New Year holidays. 🇨🇳🧧

🇳🇿 NZD under pressure: The New Zealand dollar is the weakest performer in the region after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the OCR unchanged at 2.25% and struck a more dovish tone than the market expected. Policymakers signalled they want to keep conditions supportive for now, and the “data-dependent” nature of the updated rate path cooled near-term yield expectations - weighing on the NZD. The AUD moved lower in sympathy, but with smaller losses. 🇦🇺

🇯🇵 Japan trade data surprises: Japan’s exports jumped 16.8% y/y in January, the fastest pace in more than three years, helped by strong shipments to Asia (including China) ahead of the holiday season. At the same time, manufacturers’ sentiment improved in February. Even so, many desks treat the export spike with caution, noting the risk of seasonal distortion rather than a clean shift in trend. The yen weakened modestly in relatively thin liquidity, while officials continue to warn against excessive FX moves. 💴

🇦🇺 Australia wages steady: Australia’s Wage Price Index rose 0.8% q/q in Q4, while annual wage growth held at 3.4%. The data point to stable wage dynamics, without a clear re-acceleration signal. 👷‍♂️📊

🥇 Gold rebounds: Gold is back above $4,900/oz, trading around $4,930/oz in early dealing as investors weigh geopolitics, thin holiday liquidity in Asia, and the next policy signals from the Fed.

🇯🇵 IMF on Japan: The IMF urged Japan to continue gradual rate normalisation toward a more neutral stance by 2027 and cautioned against cutting consumption tax, warning that additional fiscal easing could complicate long-term debt sustainability.

📌 Today’s focus: later in the day, markets will be watching the FOMC minutes for clues on how close the Fed is to shifting from “wait and watch” to the first cut narrative. 🕰️📄

🚀 Stay sharp, manage risk, and catch the next move before the crowd does!