🌅 Morning Update – 23 February 2026

🌍 Market mood: Trade policy uncertainty is back in focus after the US Supreme Court invalidated the tariff system introduced under IEEPA. In response, President Trump announced a uniform global tariff of 15%, higher than the previously signalled 10%. The possibility of tariff refunds adds further legal and policy ambiguity. Markets are reacting with caution, and US index futures are down by as much as 1.00% in early trade.

🇺🇸 US equity futures: Under pressure at the start of the week as investors re-price trade risks and geopolitical headlines.

💵 FX: The US dollar is among the weakest major currencies this morning, down around 0.3–0.4%.

• EURUSD +0.31%, extending short-term recovery.

🇨🇳 China–US tensions: China’s Ministry of Commerce is conducting a full assessment of the Supreme Court ruling and has urged Washington to remove unilateral tariffs, arguing they violate trade rules and US law. Beijing signalled readiness to defend its interests ahead of a potential Trump–Xi meeting window.

🥇 Gold: Strong safe-haven demand.

• $5,130, up 1.12%, the highest level in three weeks.

🛢 Oil: Softer amid demand concerns linked to tariff tensions.

• Down around 1.00%.
• Markets are also evaluating the possibility of renewed US–Iran talks. Goldman Sachs lifted its Q4 2026 Brent/WTI forecasts to $60/$56, citing lower OECD inventories, while still expecting a supply surplus in 2026 without major disruptions.

🌍 Geopolitics: Reports indicate Iran signed a €500 million agreement with Russia for the delivery of air defence systems and missiles, with shipments planned for 2027–2029. According to US media reports, Washington is considering limited airstrikes on selected targets, while US and Iranian negotiators are scheduled to meet in Geneva in what officials describe as a potentially final diplomatic window.

🪙 Crypto:

• bitcoin briefly dropped nearly 5%, breaking below $65,000, before stabilising near $65,500.

📅 Today’s Economic Calendar:

🇩🇪 11:00 – Ifo Business Climate (February)

🇺🇸 17:00 – Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transport M/M (December)

🇺🇸 17:00 – Durable Goods Orders M/M (December)

Volatility is back on the radar – manage risk carefully and stay flexible 🚀