​EBC Markets Briefing | Crude market cautious; Nvidia results failed to impress

Oil prices fell on Friday and were on track for a weekly decline after the US and Iran extended talks over nuclear programme, easing concerns about a full-on war.

The two sides have made "significant progress" in high-stakes nuclear talks in Geneva, the Omani foreign minister has said, but the chances of a deal that could avert a war remain unclear.

It remains unclear which conditions Trump could find acceptable for a deal. One of the reported options was for Iran to be allowed to enrich uranium at a minimal level after a three-to-five-year suspension under monitoring.

China has quietly built a track record of buying excess oil to build inventories at lower prices and vice versa, with a record high of 11.6 million-bpd crude imports in 2025.

US crude inventories rose by 16 million barrels last week as refinery utilization fell and imports increased, the EIA said. That exceeded expectations for a 1.5-million-barrel ⁠rise, signalling shaky demand.

OPEC+ is likely to consider raising its oil output by 137,000 bpd for April, sources said after a three-month pause. That will allow OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and members such as the UAE to regain market share.

Brent crude saw surging volatility, suggesting its move is largely driven by nuclear talks at the moment. The price edged close to the support around $70.3, which may pave the way for a snall rally.

Asset recap

As of market close on 26 February, among EBC major products, Accenture shares led gains. The company and Mistral AI inked a multi-year strategic collaboration designed to help organisations.

Nvidia's blockbuster Q4 results failed to dispel fears of an AI bubble. After years of tech boom, investors are seeking stronger assurances that booming AI spending can be maintained.

Because Nvidia is the largest stock in benchmark US stock indices by value, it has more influence on their direction than any other. Meanwhile, Treasury yields fell on signs of cooling labour market.

Expectations of higher interest rates in Australia have lit a fire under the bond market, pushing yields well above their US counterparts. The Australian dollar increased amid growing interests in carry trade.

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