​EBC Markets Briefing | Swiss franc rose after US stuck Iran; Netflix shares jumped

The Swiss franc jumped on Monday as investors sought safety after the US and Israel bombed Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. US crude oil surged more than 8%.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East is fuelling fears that Washington's pursuit of regime change in Iran could have spillover effects, leaving global leaders scrambling to assess the fallout.

Both Russia and China have offered statements condemning the US, and that will likely continue to be the case even as the situation escalates, but they will unlikely take meaningful actions.

Switzerland's pharmaceutical industry drove a recovery after higher tariffs plunged the economy into a contraction in Q3. Now it appears possible that Swiss companies could get the levies they paid refunded.

Morgan Stanley analysts said low inflation, fiscal soundness, and safety of assets could boost the franc to a lifetime high of 0.64. It looks more bullish against the euro as the bloc relies heavily on energy imports.

Leveraged funds are holding their biggest net-long position in the currency since June, according to the CFTC data. Meanwhile, Bernstein forecasts gold reaching $4,800 in 2026 and climbing to $6,100 by 2030.

The Swiss franc remained firmly above 50 SMA, but a bearish MACD divergence pointed to potential pullback. The long-term uptrend is intact given the world's return to law of the jungle.

Asset recap

As of market close on 27 February, among EBC major products, Netflix shares led gains. The company abandoned its $83bn offer for Warner Bros Discovery, which helps reduce capital costs.

American Express experienced a notable decline in its share price today, which can be attributed to several factors. An escalation in US tariff policy raised concerns about overall economic growth and consumer spending.

The renewable energy sector tumbled after the US government proposed preliminary duties of nearly 126% on solar imports from India. Some analysts have flagged possible risks to exports and margins.

EBC Financial Group Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC Global Financial Collaboration or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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